Prison governors have been cautioned that by the second week of July, jails will face severe overcrowding, creating a significant challenge for the incoming government.

This warning, issued by officials from HM Prison and Probation Service earlier this month, points to an "operational capacity breaking point" anticipated just days after the general election on 4 July.

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This critical situation presents a logistical nightmare for the forthcoming justice secretary and is expected to trigger Operation Early Dawn. This crisis measure permits offenders to be housed in police cells when prisons reach full capacity. Additionally, magistrates' courts may be prompted to delay cases. These emergency actions supplement a temporary government scheme allowing prisoners to be released up to 70 days early.

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Tom Wheatley, the president of the Prison Governors Association, highlighted the severity of the situation: "We understand that we will no longer be able to receive prisoners from court in the second to third week of July. It is not an exact science – but it is very soon after the election."

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